Bitcoin Bear Market Blues and Reds
Without writing a tome the length of Homer’s Odyssey, it’s hard to sum up all the wild moves we’ve seen in the market this year—let alone just this week. Everything got hit hard on Thursday, but the BTC selloff was the talk of the markets.
Skip down to the first divider if you want to jump to the current price analysis.
Bitcoin fell roughly 17% in just over a day, dropping from $73,000 to $60,000, and is now down more than 50% from its all-time highs set just four months ago. That’s right—we’re already four months into this bear market, even though many are only now hearing about Bitcoin being “bearish” from traditional media.
What I’ve seen this cycle has lined up remarkably well with prior cycles. The four-year cycle appears very much alive and well. When I started getting cautious on Bitcoin back in August and more so in October, all I heard was, “The four-year cycle is dead” and “This time is different.” However, this time is different is a very dangerous sentence to utter.
In the first week of November, I called Jerremy Newsome and told him I was seriously considering selling all of my Bitcoin—something I hadn’t done since I began buying heavily in 2020. We both saw clear signs of weakness developing, and my system was flashing a major warning: any sustained close below the 120-SMA on a three-day chart signals the end of a bull market. That signal has been batting 1.000 so far, and I published it repeatedly and talked about it openly at the time.
That said, as a true Bitcoin believer, I couldn’t bring myself to sell everything at the $100,000 level. So, I compromised and sold half, Newsome sold it all. I had the same fear everyone does when selling an asset they’re long-term bullish on—the fear that you sell and the market immediately rips higher, printing a massive green candle the very next day. That fear of missing out is exactly what keeps people holding through exit signals and clinging to hopium. I did that once in 2022, and I wasn’t about to let it happen again.
So I sold 50% of my Bitcoin as it broke the 120-SMA on the three-day chart. Once we rolled into 2026, and for tax reasons, I was open to selling the rest. When Bitcoin retested the 100-day SMA and the anchored VWAP from the highs on January 14th—and both acted like a brick wall—I sold the remaining 50%. That put me at a 0% Bitcoin allocation, down from roughly 65% of my total portfolio in May of 2025.
Another reason for fully exiting was structural. I wanted to transition into IBIT instead of holding spot Bitcoin on ledgers. IBIT is simply easier to trade, offers options for protection and income generation, and fits better into my portfolio. The only real downside is that it doesn’t trade on weekends, which can matter at times.
So that was then. What about now?
I recently started buying again, beginning with small purchases at $73,000, then adding more at $69,000. When Thursday turned into total chaos and price kept falling, I added again around $64,000. For reference, I was buying IBIT, so divide those Bitcoin prices by roughly 1,757 to get the equivalent IBIT price.
My core thesis has been that Bitcoin would eventually drop to the 200-week SMA once we broke the 120-SMA on the three-day chart. That conviction strengthened significantly when we broke the 100-week SMA on January 28th. That was a big deal. The 100-week SMA is a level institutions often defend and buy against, and Bitcoin had held above it since the November 21st low.
I briefly considered that “this time might be different” because of the addition of IBIT, and that perhaps the 100-week SMA would hold in this cycle instead of a move to the 200-week as seen in prior bears. But once that level broke in January, the probability of hitting the 200-week SMA jumped significantly.
What I was not prepared for was the speed. On Thursday, 8 days after the break, we got within $1,900 of the 200-week SMA, a 30% drop and a reminder of just how violently Bitcoin can move when leverage gets flushed out of the system. For perspective, in the 2022 bear market we saw a 35% bear candle on the weekly. During COVID, Bitcoin dropped roughly 50% in one week and in 2018, we saw three separate 35%+ bearish weekly candles.
This week, which isn’t finished yet, but spans about 24% from top to bottom. Historically speaking, that’s still relatively tame—almost blue-chip territory compared to prior Bitcoin volatility.
I do think a short-term low is likely in for now, or at least it should be. RSI reached extreme levels that tend to mark major lows, and IBIT saw the highest volume since its inception. As mentioned above price also came within roughly $1,900 of the 200-week SMA, a level everyone is watching to see if it acts as support and signals the end of the bear market.
However, because everyone is watching the 200-week SMA—and I truly mean everyone—I don’t think the market will make it that easy. I don’t expect a clean, textbook bounce right off that level. For that reason, I think a short-term low is in, but not the final one.
From here, I see a few potential paths.
The most probable path (Blue), though only by a slight margin, is that Bitcoin retests the $69,000–$76,000 zone, chops and consolidates for a bit, and then breaks down below the 200-week SMA toward the $48,000 area. From there, we could see additional consolidation and possibly one final push lower toward the $38,000 level. That would undercut the IBIT IPO low, something tech IPOs love to do before reestablishing longer-term bull trends. That $38,000 area also aligns with the 100-month SMA—a massive support level that Bitcoin has never touched, simply because it only came into existence in March of 2023.
BTC Blue Path
The second most probable path (Red) is a large B-wave rally starting here. In this scenario, Bitcoin pushes higher in a three-wave move that retests the 100-week SMA near $87,000 from below. Bulls celebrate, confidence returns, and FOMO kicks back in—only for the final rug pull to occur as the true C-wave begins, sending price back below the 200-week SMA into the $50,000–$38,000 range.
BTC Red Path
Both paths ultimately point lower before the bear market is complete.
If we zoom out and look at timing, past cycles offer some guidance. The 2022 bear market lasted 364 days from peak to trough. The 2018 bear market also lasted 364 days. The 2014 bear market lasted 406 days. If we assume this bear market began around August 14th, 2025, that puts the earliest historical bottom around August 13th, 2026. Giving a month of flexibility pushes that window into July on the early side.
Using a longer duration of roughly 409 days projects a potential bottom closer to September 27th, with a reasonable window extending into late October. That gives us a likely bear market bottom somewhere between July and October—a four-month range.
In other words, even in the best case, we likely still have another 150 days of this bear market ahead of us. There’s no rush. Take your time and plan accordingly.
Could this selloff be all we get? Sure. Markets can always surprise. But history suggests that’s not the most likely outcome.
As an added bonus for you all, here’s my silver chart, which has been absolutely slaying lately. I called the exact top, then flagged a solid bullish trade while calling the top of that move as well (check my recent SLV post if you want receipts). Now price is back in the lower buy zone, where I’m looking for a more sustained push toward the $90 region before weakness likely sets in once again.
Can I go three for three on this one?
SLV 2011 vs Today
