Flight From Spec Tech
Silver & Bitcoin Update
Investors appear to be shifting capital out of high-beta, long-duration growth names and into areas more closely tied to the real economy, with stronger pricing power and more dependable earnings. In other words, the market is rotating out of speculative tech (think RDDT, CRWV, IONQ) and into established cash producers that are far less likely to be disrupted by AI (think HD, COST, WMT, and even AAPL).
AAPL had an impressive move on Monday as investors digested just how strong its earnings were. The company posted its best quarter ever, with $143.8 billion in revenue, up 16% year over year — an incredible number at that scale. Demand for the iPhone 17 remains strong, and the recent selloff proved to be a buying opportunity. While price didn’t quite reach the 200-day SMA, which was my ultimate downside target, the stock did pull back roughly 16%, which is very much in line with prior corrections following new all-time highs. That said, another wave lower is still possible, and we would get confirmation if price closes below Monday’s candle in the near term.
AAPL
SLV is attempting to bounce after last Friday’s sharp selloff. I think there’s a reasonable chance we see a push higher toward the $83–$96 area before additional weakness sets in. If instead price continues lower, support should come in near the $65–$55 zone. I continue to expect SLV to track the 2011 analog fairly closely and see a high probability of a bullish move back to at least the 50% retracement of Friday’s candle near $80.00, with a possible extension into Friday’s gap around $93.00. I break down the similarities between the 2011 analog and today’s price action in the video below.
SLV Daily Chart
With so much discussion around capital rotating out of metals (GLD and SLV) and into Bitcoin, I took a closer look at the correlation. Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs, there appears to be a loose inverse relationship between the two. When BTC is moving sideways or lower, gold has generally been trending higher. When gold is consolidating or pulling back, BTC has tended to trend higher.
Gold now appears to have put in a near-term top and is likely headed for a period of consolidation. If this relationship continues, the chart suggests BTC should trend higher over the coming period, at minimum putting in a lower high. This thesis lines up well with the Bitcoin analysis I’ve been developing over the past several months. You can find more on that Bitcoin thesis isn my prior posts.
BTC & Gold Correlation
