New All Time Highs
RLT Newsletter 4.15.26
The last 11 days has been one of the wildest stretches I’ve ever witnessed in the market.
In just 11 short day, both SPY and QQQ have surged to fresh all-time highs erasing months downward chop. Even Microsoft and high-beta trash heaps like BULL are pushing higher. The bulls are officially back in town, and they’re partying like it’s 1999.
Speaking of which, the 1999 analog continues to track remarkably well. From here, I’m expecting some near-term consolidation. A dip back into the price action of the prior three days feels likely before the next leg higher. As long as the 100-day SMA holds on both SPY and QQQ, that remains my base case.
SPY Daily Chart & 1999 Analog
Historical Context: 11%+ in 11 Days
Looking at history, an 11%+ rally in just 11 days for the S&P 500 isn’t completely unprecedented. What is extremely rare, however, is achieving this kind of explosive move while pushing into all-time highs.
The only real comparable instance is March 2000 , right at the peak of the dot-com bubble. That instance is similar to now in that it drew down 10%, ran to new all time highs in very short order and contained a 14% pop in just a 7 trading days. However, in all other cases, these types of violent rallies occurred after much deeper drawdowns and took significantly longer to reclaim prior highs.
This kind of price action has historically marked important bottoms in nearly every instance. While that’s somewhat obvious now that we’ve already reclaimed and surpassed the highs, it still provides valuable context.
More importantly, these explosive moves have led to higher prices one year later in almost every case, with March 2000 being the clear outlier. And no, before the permabears get too excited, I’m not calling for a dot-com-style crash tomorrow. In fact, the analog I’m tracking suggests we still have roughly 129 days before a potential market top and any kind of major unwind. So for now, let’s party like it’s 1999.
SPY 1999 Analog
Here are the historical periods where SPY (or the S&P 500) saw 11%+ gains in 11 days:
October 1974
February 1975
August 1982
October 1982
August 1984
November 1987
December 1987
October 1998
March 2000
April 2001
August 2002
October 2002
December 2008
March 2009
July 2009
October 2011
April 2020
Today
SPX Weekly Chart With 11%+ Gains in 11 Days
My Current Stance
Overall, I’m not a buyer at these levels on the SPY or QQQ. I expect some form of short-term correction over the next week, similar to what we saw in the 1999 analog. These pullbacks tend to be relatively shallow, often frustrating those waiting for a clean, textbook dip.
This type of “lockout rally” can persist longer than many expect, but it won’t continue indefinitely without at least some consolidation or digestion. Moves like this happen when big money is on the wrong side of the trade. The market gaps higher, shorts get squeezed first, and then under-allocated funds are forced to chase and put money to work, which only drives prices higher and extends the move far longer and higher than most think is possible.
Ideally, I’d like to see a pullback toward the $690 area or a gap fill closer to $685, where the risk-to-reward setup becomes far more attractive. However, if we continue screaming higher that level will trail up.
V-Shaped Bottoms and Bitcoin Charting
The S&P 500 is no stranger to V-shaped bottoms, they’ve almost become the norm in recent cycles. But this one has been especially agressive and steep. The velocity of the move feels more like a Bitcoin rally than that of the S&P 500.
If this were Bitcoin, I’d be watching closely for a potential all-time high trap, a common pattern in the Bitcoin chart. Hopefully the S&P 500 isn’t going to be that mean.
Even if it has, we’ll have clear signals. A decisive break below the 100-day SMA would be the first real warning sign, just like we saw with Bitcoin on October 6th when it pushed to all time highs highs and immediately lost the key levels.
As far as Bitcoin is concerned, it still hasn’t reclaimed its 100-day SMA and is sitting at a resistance. But if it does break out, a move toward the 100-week and 200-day SMAs near $87,000 becomes possible.
BTCUSD Daily Chart
