Market Alert: QQQ Violates Critical 100-Day Support
The QQQ is breaking below its 100-day SMA for the first time since the massive breakaway gap on May 12, 2025. Losing this anchor is a major technical shift, especially as broader market weakness begins to surface.
Key Technical Red Flags:
· The $630 “Brick Wall”: Price action stalled violently at $630.00, confirming this level as a primary overhead resistance zone.
· Fibonacci Confluence: Both the SPY and QQQ have tagged their 1.618 extensions measured from the 2025 “Tariff Tantrum” lows—a classic spot for major trend exhaustion.
· Mag 7 Divergence: The market’s primary engines have been underperforming the SPY since early November. Without Big Tech leadership, a sustained rally lacks the necessary fuel.
· Momentum Decay: The Daily RSI is flashing clear bearish divergence. Momentum is lagging significantly behind price, suggesting the bulls are losing conviction at these elevated levels.
· Historical Echoes: The last time we saw the Mag 7 show divergence from SPY and the 100-day SMA broke, the SPY suffered a 21% drawdown.
The Bottom Line
While I am not calling for an immediate 20% crash, the structural similarities to the 2025 correction are too prominent to ignore. With momentum fading and key extensions hit, the path of least resistance currently points lower.
Caution is warranted here. Watch the video below for a full chart breakdown and my strategy for navigating this defensive shift.
