Slaying the Titans
RLT Newsletter 3.26.26
The sell-off intensified on Thursday, marking a full week since the SPY closed below its 200-day simple moving average. Historical price action has shown that reclaiming this key level within two days is necessary to avoid a painful downside for the bulls. One week later after no reclaim came, that ugly outcome is unfolding in real time.
The SPY has now corrected about 7.5% from its recent highs but has only retraced a modest 23.6% of the rally off the April lows. Meanwhile, the QQQ is down nearly 10% and has similarly retraced just over 23.6% of its move from those lows.
When we zoom in on the Trillion-Dollar Titans (the heavyweights driving the indices), the charts are far more broken. Several names have already surrendered nearly all of their 2025 gains, and most have broken critical support levels.
At roughly 43% of the QQQ and 32% of the SPY, what these Tech Titans do next matters enormously. Without strength from this group, a sustainable return to the bull market is impossible. This is precisely why I track these names so closely.
We first saw signs of weakness in the MAGS (Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF) when it topped on October 29th alongside the QQQ. While the SPY managed a new high in January 2026, both QQQ and MAGS formed lower highs. This divergence echoed a similar pattern in 2025, when MAGS peaked 63 days before the broader market. These stocks are truly make-or-break for the indices right now, and the setups are leaning heavily toward break.
MAGS Daily Chart
NVDA
The big dog in tech still holds a market cap over 4 trillion dollars (for now). NVDA has been locked in a clear distribution pattern for the past 245 days. It repeatedly tested the $193 resistance level only to get rejected by heavy selling. It has now broken below its 200-day SMA and is approaching the critical $171 support that has held throughout this distribution process.
If that level fails, there is little meaningful support until the prior all-time high near $153. The 100-week SMA currently sits in the mid-140s and continues inching higher. Assuming we are in an ABC corrective structure from the October 29 high, we are likely close to entering the swift and volatile C-wave lower.
If NVDA breaks below $170 dollars convincingly, it is hard to imagine the broader market not following suit. A drop toward the 100-week SMA in the $140s could offer nice risk/reward for a B-wave bounce back toward the $170 resistance. However, a weekly close below the 100-week SMA without quick reclamation would be bearish and open the door to much lower prices.
NVDA Daily Chart
AAPL
AAPL is holding up best among the group, down only about 12% from its prior all-time highs. It remains above its 200-day SMA, for now. As long as that level holds, a short-term bounce toward the 100-day SMA remains possible if the market finds some relief.
If AAPL loses the 200-day SMA, the next major support lines up with the 100-week SMA and horizontal level near $237, representing roughly a 20 percent drawdown from all time highs. A break below that would likely target the $215 area (major gap and support).
Should AAPL close comfortably below the 200-day SMA, the broader market will take notice and likely follow lower.
AAPL Daily Chart
GOOGL
GOOGL seemed like the safe haven among the big tech names until its February earnings gap exposed cracks. Since the post-earnings gap down, the chart has shown repeated breakdowns: a swift close below the February 5th bullish candle, loss of the 100-day SMA, and repeated rejections at the anchored VWAP from the highs.
This Tuesday delivered the biggest crack yet: a decisive break below the $295 key support and confirmation of a head-and-shoulders pattern. GOOGL went nearly straight up in 2025, leaving sparse horizontal support. The next support zone is the gap fill near $261, which also aligns with the 200-day SMA.
A bounce back to the $295 dollar resistance could set up a quick short back down to the 200-day SMA, where longs would once again have decent risk/reward. Losing the 200-day SMA would bring the Warren Buffett gap and 100-week SMA into play, as there is little to no support on this name until that key level.
GOOGL Daily Chart
MSFT
MSFT is just 5 percent away from breaking below its April 7 low. It has erased nearly all of its 2025 gains, is down around 35% from highs, and has already slipped below the 200-week SMA and 50-month EMA. A close below the 200-week SMA would be the first since 2012, a significant shift in character after more than a decade of strength.
A multi-week to multi-month bounce looks probable soon, potentially taking MSFT back to at least $412 and more likely toward $450 (underside of the 100-week SMA). That said, anyone going long here should recognize the elevated risk: this is uncharted territory for the stock in over a decade. In a worst-case scenario, the 200-week SMA could flip to resistance, and a gap-down on earnings could push MSFT back into the 200s.
MSFT Daily Chart
AMZN
AMZN has held relatively well at the 100-week SMA. As long as it defends that level, a push toward the 100-day and 200-day SMAs looks feasible before a deeper drop into the gap fill near 176 dollars.
I expect AMZN will ultimately erase most (if not all) of its 2025 gains in a final C-wave, with longer-term support around the 200-week SMA. The question is timing: will it deliver one more decent bounce first, or head straight down? AMZN is one of the choppier names right now. In a headline-driven market, it is close to a coin flip. Watch the 100-week SMA closely. A break below it increases the odds of a direct move toward the 177 dollar level.
TSM
Though not in the QQQ or SPY, TSM is one of the world’s largest companies and a critical part of the AI ecosystem. It serves as a clean gauge of sentiment toward AI right now. TSM is holding up well, down only 16 percent from its all-time highs, and has yet to test its 100-day SMA.
After Thursday’s bearish gap and go after the rejection at the anchored VWAP from the ATH, a break below the 100-day SMA looks likely. If the gap at $307 holds, a bounce toward the overhead gap fill at $365 is still possible. However any bounce from here likely is a B wave higher before the C wave takes us even lower.
TSM Daily Chart
AVGO
Similar to NVDA, AVGO has been in distribution for roughly 200 days and recently broke below its 200-day SMA. Support is thin until the prior all-time high near $250 . With a clear head-and-shoulders pattern in place, the chart strongly favors lower prices. Another 23% drop to the 100-week SMA would not be surprising for this volatile name.
AVGO Daily Chart
TSLA
TSLA has also broken below its 200-day SMA and looks like it is headed toward lower support around $339 before any major level comes into play. I suspect the upcoming SpaceX IPO (expected in Q2) could pressure TSLA longer-term by giving investors another way to gain exposure to Elon Musk’s ecosystem.
In the near term, TSLA continues to respect a massive parallel channel dating back to 2023. The lower trendline of that channel aligns nicely with the 100-week SMA, suggesting that zone is likely an area to watch if it drops further.
TSLA Daily Chart
META
Last and probably least we have META which dropped 8% on Thursday after losing its 100-week SMA just days earlier. It also broke the key trendline held since the November low. See, losing the 100-day SMA is generally an early warning sign of more trouble ahead.
META is now down 31% from its ATH, and the gap near 500 dollars looks destined to fill. It is only a matter of timing. The chart looks bearish overall but watch for a retest of Thursday’s candle. Failure to hold the $485 to $500 dollar zone would bring the deeper gap fill near $400 dollars into focus.
META Daily Chart
TL;DR
The market sell-off is gaining momentum one week after the SPY broke its 200-day SMA and failed to reclaim it. While the indices have only given back a shallow portion of the prior rally, the true leaders, the Trillion Dollar Titans, have already surrendered far more of their 2025 gains and appear set up to continue lower. NVDA, AVGO, and GOOGL look ready to cascade lower at any moment, while MSFT and META have already fallen hard. AAPL and TSM are holding up relatively better for now, and AMZN may see some near-term upside but ultimately looks likely to resolve lower. Without a meaningful recovery in these heavyweights, which dominate the weightings in both the SPY and QQQ, a substantial and sustainable bounce in the market seems unlikely. Watch the highlighted support levels closely. Breaks lower could accelerate the decline, while holds may allow for short-term bounces.
Thanks for the insight! It’s nice to gain some perspective in these crazy times.