Strong Get Stronger
RLT Newsletter 4.9.2026
The strength continues in the market as SPY and QQQ closed higher once again on Thursday. Everyone seems to be assuming that CPI will drive the market lower, but even if that happens, I think dips will remain buyable for at least a few more weeks. From everything I’m seeing, this bullish move is not quite over.
Whether this is a B wave or the start of something larger and more sustained is hard to say, but that doesn’t really impact my April thesis, which is simple: stay bullish as long as SPY and QQQ are above the 200-day SMA, and look to buy weakness in the stronger names.
SPY Daily Chart
We’ve clearly seen the trend of weak getting weaker and strong getting stronger accelerate over the past couple of weeks. Strong names like MU, LITE, MRVL, SNDK, and AMAT have continued to hold up well, while weaker names like ADBE, NOW, ZS, and MSFT have remained under pressure and can’t seem to catch a bid.
While it’s true that the selling in software, especially MSFT, is likely overdone, that doesn’t mean the market has to change its opinion anytime soon. When you’re buying a stock in a downtrend after it has broken support repeatedly, you have to understand that any bullish trade will likely take time to play out. It usually requires a catalyst, whether that’s a capitulation gap down, a breakaway gap up, or a strong trend-changing candle.
The gap up on MSFT on Wednesday was aggressively sold into, sending it back below the 200-day SMA and creating a pretty bearish retest and rejection of the 200-week SMA scenario. For anything meaningful to happen on the upside, MSFT needs to reclaim that 200-week SMA and Wednesday’s candle. With earnings coming up in about 19 days, that could act as a catalyst, but for now, there’s nothing on the chart suggesting immediate upside.
MSFT Daily Chart
Since strong stocks are continuing to act well, that’s where the focus should be. Here are a few setups I’m watching:
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Semis are ripping right now, and more specifically, the memory names are leading the charge. With the rest of the group stabilizing, SMH has pushed back to all-time highs. Many of these names look attractive as long as they hold their lower gap from Wednesday.
If a stock is in a bullish trend, has a strong gap, and begins to retest that Wednesday gap in a controlled way, it should create a solid risk/reward setup. SMH looks like it could see some kind of pullback, followed by at least one more push higher. As long as we don’t get a sharp bearish gap down through Wednesday’s candle, any controlled pullback should be buyable.
Best case scenario is a controlled dip over the next few days into the $405 area, followed by a move back to new highs and a potential push toward $450 into early May.
SMH Daily Chart
CoreWeave
This name isn’t showing massive relative strength, but it’s also not getting crushed like many high-beta and software names. What stood out was Thursday’s candle, which filled Wednesday’s gap and still managed to close bullish on very high volume.
It’s now back above the 100-day SMA and approaching the apex of a large triangle pattern. The last time I traded CRWV was after the December 19th candle, which showed similar bullish volume characteristics, and that trade worked well.
What makes this setup attractive is the clear invalidation level. If price breaks below Thursday’s candle and loses the 100-day SMA, the bullish thesis is broken. On the upside, there are multiple resistance levels, but the 200-day SMA and the gap above are reasonable targets.
CRWV Daily Chart
Eos Energy Enterprises
For the bottom feeders out there, this one looks interesting. EOSE printed a 29% gap-and-go candle, which is a strong reversal signal. This has the look of a potential bottom. If it pulls back and holds Thursday’s low, it could offer a solid risk/reward setup with upside toward the 100-day SMA.
As long as Thursday’s low holds, the bullish thesis remains intact. There is significant overhead resistance given that the stock is still down 77% from its highs, but a gap fill around $9.21, roughly 50% higher, stands out as a solid longer-term target.
EOSE Daily Chart
Nebius Group
I traded NBIS long after the March 11th gap and only had to hold for two days to hit my target. I forgot about this chart for a bit and came back this week to see it printing a bearish hammer on Wednesday, followed by a strong continuation on Thursday, closing at the highest level in its history.
This is the kind of chart where dips should be buyable. It’s showing strong relative strength and looks like it’s breaking out after a large consolidation period. A move toward the 1.618 extension of the recent correction would put it around the $182 level, giving it plenty of room to run.
With momentum names like this, there isn’t always a perfect stop level. I typically use a recent candle low or a shorter-term moving average like the 8, 10, 12, or 20 EMA. However, if the bullish thesis is going to hold, NBIS should not be closing below $109 any time soon.
NBIS Daily Chart
