Thursday Trending Trades
RLT Newsletter 3/11/2026
SPY and QQQ ran directly into their 100-day SMA on Tuesday and were rejected as if the level were a brick wall. Technically, QQQ didn’t quite reach its 100-day SMA. Instead, it rejected at the anchored VWAP from the all-time high, which sits just below that moving average.
We have been monitoring the downward trending channel on QQQ for some time, and it once again held perfectly. Price bounced off the lower end of the channel on Monday and rejected off the upper boundary on Tuesday, keeping it firmly trapped inside this sideways to lower chop. Wednesday’s candle failed to make progress in either direction, printing a small bearish indecision candle.
SPY Daily Chart
Navigating the Chop
As long as SPY and QQQ remain stuck between the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, the edge for directional strategies is limited. In these conditions, non-directional plays and quick “in and out” swing trades tend to work best.
Monday’s candle was a bullish engulfing candle, but it occurred under the 100-day SMA. That is why I took profits on many of my quick swing trades as we pushed into that level on SPY from below on Tuesday. I notified the RLT Swing Trade chat as I was doing it. If you want more updates than just the daily newsletter, jump into that community. I post intraday updates, videos, and additional setups there throughout the day.
The Path to New Highs
If this market is going to make a bullish run toward new all-time highs, the first requirement is for SPY to close above the 100-day SMA. Even in that scenario, I think the upside may still be limited, but it could be worth a trade, especially if we drop a bit lower first.
What is “low enough” for me? Ideally, I would like to see SPY drop to at least the 50 percent retracement of Monday’s candle before adding any long exposure. However, as I mentioned on Tuesday, a drop to the 200-day SMA would be the ideal setup.
The market does not have to give us the perfect entry. If the 200-day does not materialize, the strategy is simple: buy as low as possible and sell as high as possible within the range. The 50 percent to 61.8 percent retracement of Monday’s candle is a reasonable place to look for entries. On QQQ, the 61.8 percent retracement lines up almost perfectly with the anchored VWAP from the June 23rd low. That level has supported the market for months and has not been decisively broken.
If we close below that level and lose the 200-day SMA on QQQ, we could see a quick flush lower. However, that move would likely create a solid buying opportunity for at least a B-wave bounce.
QQQ Daily Chart
The Trillion Dollar Titans
If you study the long-term daily moving averages across the largest tech names, you can see why the market is stuck. NVDA, AAPL, AVGO, and TSLA are all trapped between their 100-day and 200-day SMAs. Meanwhile, MSFT, AMZN, and META are firmly below their long-term moving averages. Only GOOGL and TSM are hanging in there, and GOOGL is one bad day away from a breakdown that would push it into that same “between the averages” zone.
Many of these names are at the top of my watchlist, and I am already long some of them. But without a sustained push from these titans, it is difficult for the broader market to stage a meaningful bullish move.
Individual Setups & Scans
In markets like this, it helps to scan for setups that look different from the broader indices. Today I found two interesting charts: EVLV and NBIS.
EVLV bounced beautifully off the 100-week SMA and is moving higher following earnings. The most important part of any trade for me is identifying the level where my thesis is wrong. EVLV gives us a clean level: the double bottom low, the high-volume hammer from Wednesday, and the 100-week SMA all sit in the same area. This creates a very clear invalidation point.
The original entry, when I first did the scan was a breakout above a bearish hammer candle. After Wednesday’s close, the new entry becomes a retest of the hammer and the double bottom neckline around $5.50. The 100-day SMA is pushing down toward price and offers a logical first target. I also like that the corrective move from the August highs appears to have completed a clean ABC structure.
EVLV Daily Chart
NBIS is another setup to watch. The stock gapped up and closed above the past 118 days of price action. Unless it mimics the NVDA move from February 25th, this looks like the beginning of a push toward new all-time highs. The volume shelf is strong and we now have a gap above resistance. I would prefer a slight pullback into the gap for an entry, but I would not want to see the gap completely filled.
A close back below the 100-day SMA would invalidate the setup. The last few times price reclaimed the 100-day and then quickly lost it, the stock moved significantly lower. Hopefully this time the breakout holds.
NBIS Daily Chart
