Thursday Trending Trades
RLT Newsletter 3/4/2026
Market Update: Bullish Reversal Signals in a Choppy Environment
On Tuesday, the market opened lower, dropped hard out the gate, but closed with a strong bullish candle and a classic bear trap. That high-volume daily reversal at a swing low is a powerful setup. When it occurs, there’s a high probability of at least some follow-through to the upside—which we are now seeing.
Don’t get me wrong, we are still firmly in a choppy, sideways market, and the last couple of days have done nothing to change that. Staying quick and nimble remains the name of the game for me right now.
One Nugget Takeaway
If you take away only one thing from this update, let it be this: When a key level breaks and price closes below it, that level gets one candle to reclaim it.
If it reclaims on the very next candle → consider it a trap; the original thesis remains intact.
If it fails to reclaim and continues lower → it’s a true break. Adjust your thesis accordingly.
Take the SPY chart this week as the prime example. The key level I have been watching is the 100-day SMA. QQQ already broke its 100-day SMA earlier, leading to a month of consolidation below the average and carnage in many of its component charts.
SPY gapped below the 100-day SMA on Monday but managed to close nicely above it. On Tuesday afternoon, SPY closed below the 100-day SMA for the first time since reclaiming it on the May 12th, 2025 breakout gap. However, on Wednesday, it pushed back above and reclaimed the key level on the very next candle. This is exactly why I turned fairly bullish Wednesday morning after being fairly bearish Tuesday morning. I entered QQQ at open on Wednesday and shouted that trade out to the RLT Swing Trade Community Chat. In choppy, sideways markets, things shift fast.
QQQ Daily Chart
Dot-Com Analog Still in Play
Another reason for the Wednesday morning bullish bias: the dot-com analog continues to hold. It suggests a low into this week, followed by a push higher into April before a larger correction occurs. With the 100-day SMA holding (so far), that scenario remains alive.
SPY Dot Com Analog
Key Names Holding Support
We also saw many important names sell off into major support and show signs of bottoming—even if it’s just short-term before another drop and eventual lower lows (which remains my primary thesis on several names I’m trading).
NVDA held the 200-day SMA
GOOGL “held” the 100-day SMA
MSFT dropped ~30% into its 200-week SMA and held (though it hasn’t actually tagged it… yet)
AMZN held the 100-week SMA, gapped higher with a marvelous gap-up (which I bought at the open and flagged in the RLT Swing Trade Community Chat)
TSLA held the 200-day SMA
AMD held the 200-day SMA
The Bigger Picture: B-Wave “Bear Market” Bounce in Tech
Many of the current bounces in tech, in Bitcoin, and in other beaten-down leaders pressing higher feel like classic B-wave moves within a larger corrective structure. With decent overhead runway, I can see these oversold names continue pushing higher over the next few weeks, forming lower highs while SPY potentially prints new all-time highs in line with the dot-com analog.
Do not get me wrong—there is still great money to be made in B waves. That is exactly why I am currently long MSFT and Bitcoin, two of the cleaner potential B-wave bounces in the market right now.
If and when these B waves exhaust themselves—especially if that lines up with SPY hitting its blow-off targets—it would likely pave the way for a broader market drop. That would mean the first meaningful 10%+ correction in SPY and QQQ, along with fresh lows in many individual names.
As long as the critical supports continue to hold, I am focused on short-term swing trades into clear targets, taking profits into strength, and collaring positions where appropriate, ideally before any real market correction begins.
In this kind of choppy, news-driven market, however, my thesis can shift quickly if key levels get taken out. When support breaks and fails to reclaim on the next candle, I respect it. In this environment, flexibility is not optional. It is mandatory.
AMZN Daily Chart
