Tuesday Top Trades

RLT Newsletter 3.30.26

We’ve now reached the point where Iran’s leaders are tweeting U.S. stock market
”advice”, and the wild part is they actually nailed it on Monday. The gist of what they said is that this is a “sell the rip” environment, which, if you’ve been reading this newsletter or just watching recent price action, you already knew. It’s still a real wild time in the markets.

Futures opened lower on Sunday night, but by Monday morning SPY gapped up, as has become the new normal. That gap got sold off, because that’s what happens in bear markets. The best-case scenario in the short term would be a decent-sized gap down in the coming days where bulls actually step in and buy it. If we gap down and the bulls don’t show up, then the bulls have a real problem and we’re likely entering the panic phase of this move.

SPY Daily Chart

I go over the markets and all your favorite charts in the video below, so check it out for a detailed breakdown of where we stand.

A few key things happened today: SMH broke key support as TSM fell below its 100-day SMA, NVDA sold off further, and MU broke down hard. IWM finally lost its 200-day SMA, giving up the bullish edge that small caps had been clinging to for the past few days. We also saw AAPL break its 200-day SMA, which is a big bearish development.

It looks like all of the Trillion Dollar Titans have more room to fall from here. Nothing about the NVDA chart is bullish right now. AAPL is below its 200-day SMA, with its next key support sitting just below current price levels before the 100-day SMA. GOOGL looks destined to test its 200-day SMA, a level it desperately needs to hold. MSFT and META are in full-blown crash mode. AMZN broke its 100-week SMA and has a gap below at $194 that needs to fill. AVGO and TSLA are both below their 200-day SMAs and sitting in no-man’s-land, with meaningful support still further down.

The QQQ looks like it has a little more downside before we get a 4th wave correction up into the $573–$583 level. After that, it should push back to a new low near the prior all-time high zone around $530–$540. The SPY is telling a slightly different story and suggests the next bounce could be larger and more drawn out, possibly reaching into the 200-day SMA and taking a few weeks to play out. Either way, the charts are saying we’re not yet near a durable bottom. Of course, there’s always the possibility that full-on panic hits and we drop straight down another 2-5% on SPY to reach the 600 range. I haven’t entirely ruled that out.

QQQ Daily Chart

Unity Software

One of our Top Trades today comes from Jerremy Newsome himself. He has mentioned and discussed U a few times in past Tuesday Top Trades videos, and today’s trade is the clearest bull signal it has given us since it broke below the 100-day SMA back in late January.

The stock has been trying to bottom after a disastrous breakdown into earnings and is working hard to form a double bottom. On Friday, U was one of the strongest names on the tape, gapping up and closing nearly 15% higher with a bearish hammer candle. It closed just over that candle on Monday, triggering breakout buyers.

The trade now would be a limit buy somewhere into the top of that big bearish hammer, with a stop below it. If it closes back below Monday’s candle anytime soon, that would be a signal to mitigate risk. But if it closes back below Friday’s candle, the bull thesis is dead, killed by AI along with everything else.

The ultimate target would be the $27.00 range to fill the gap, though $23.00 would likely act as resistance on the way up.

U Daily Chart

Alphabet Inc

GOOGL is a really interesting chart right now. For one, it has about as perfect a head and shoulders pattern as you can get, with a clean break below the neckline. It has yet to retest that neckline, which supports the overall thesis of the bull trade, believe it or not.

If GOOGL can drop down to the 200-day SMA and the gap at $261 and find a bottom without a severe break of the 200-day SMA, it could make for a nice trade — whether GOOGL is eventually headed lower or not.

Say the correction is over and that was the full ABC move, and it’s now heading to new highs. That would be a great buy zone, obviously. But say this is just the first leg in a larger correction that will eventually take it to the Warren Buffett gap and the 100-week SMA. Even under those circumstances, it should see a B-wave bounce higher, at least into the neckline around $294.

This setup gives decent risk-reward and the opportunity to collar the position around the neckline, locking in a solid win either way. If it closes strong below the 200-day SMA and doesn’t regain it quickly, the bull thesis is in trouble and hedging or stops are likely in order.

GOOGL Daily Chart

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