Tuesday Top Trades
RLT Newsletter 3/16/2026
Market Update: Still Waiting for Clarity on the Next Leg
Not much changed on Monday from a longer-term perspective. It’s possible the B-wave bounce has already started and this pullback won’t reach the 200-day SMA—but Monday offered little confirmation either way.
Friday’s candle did print a new low, completing a pattern off the highs. A strong bullish gap with follow-through would now signal the next leg higher is underway. Until we see a decisive close above $674, I’m still watching for a final flush into the $650s, where the 200-day SMA resides.
SPY Daily Chart
Trillion Dollar Titans
Among the TDT names, AMZN currently offers the most attractive quick-trade risk/reward. It’s holding the 100-week SMA (a level I love), which prompted me to buy it Monday morning. I’ve noted before that it could see a B-wave move up to fill those overhead gaps, a setup that aligns nicely with the potential B-wave bounce I’m tracking in SPY. If it starts closing below the 100-week SMA, I’ll protect the position and or exit.
AMZN Daily Chart
META: I bought it off the 100-week SMA on Friday and sold at today’s open (shared in the RLT Swing Trade Chat). It could still go higher as long as it respects that 100-week SMA, with $650 as the next upside target.
NVDA: A break above Monday’s candle could fuel a nice rally higher. But losing the 200-day SMA would be bearish and open the door to the $150s or lower.
AAPL: Risk/reward only gets compelling near the 200-day SMA. However the ideal level is at the 100-week SMA around $230.
GOOGL: It’s settling in below the 100-day SMA. A loss of $295 would be significant and likely trigger a quick flush to $270 or lower. If it can regain the 100-day SMA a push to $330 is doable.
MSFT: The low may already be in, or we could see one more leg down to $370–$360. Either way, it’s positioning for a larger B-wave bounce.
AVGO: Sitting right on the 200-day SMA, which aligns with horizontal support held since September. A break lower would be bearish, targeting the prior all-time high near $250. On the flip side, reclaiming the 100-day SMA (~$350) would open the gap fill toward $394.
TSM: Looks like it wants to hit $307 after completing a double-top pattern, retesting the neckline, and consolidating for three days. A push above those three bearish candles could spark a bullish gap-fill trade to $360–$365, which I’d consider playing. Overall, though, it still leans toward testing longer-term averages lower.
TSLA: It’s clinging to the 200-day SMA. Risk/reward improves significantly if it drops back toward the 100-week SMA, given its complex three wave structure and massive parallel channel.
Dollar Index & Broader Implications
The DXY chart has been staring to get more attention lately and for good reason. It flashed lower on January 27th and has been grinding higher since. The inverse correlation with BTC (and risk assets) remains striking: BTC tends to rise when DXY falls, and vice versa.
DXY is hovering near a key breakout level at $100 which as been a major support/resistance. One plausible scenario: SPY pushes higher in a B-wave while DXY pulls back toward its long-term daily averages around $98 over the next month. That window could lift Bitcoin and many stocks. Then, if DXY breaks out decisively above $100, it would fuel its bullish momentum—catalyzing the C-wave lower in risk assets.
This involves some wild speculation, but the correlation between a stronger dollar and weaker risk assets is well-established. The critical question: Does DXY actually break and hold above $100?
DXY Daily Chart w/BTC Tops
Tuesday Top Trade
Adobe Inc.
Apparently AI has killed Adobe. It has certainly killed its chart. The stock is down about 64% from its 2022 highs and has been in a brutal, straight down C wave correction for the past year. That said, it may be approaching at least a short term bounce zone.
For one, the 200-month SMA sits just below current price action. This average has only been touched once before in 2008. It is also very close to the monthly RSI lows reached during the 2008 correction, when the stock dropped about 67% from its highs. And yes, in case you were wondering, the 200-month SMA today would represent roughly a 67% decline from the 2022 high as well, which lines up almost perfectly with that prior historical move.
Now, I am not certain price actually has to reach that level, which is why I see two possible trades in ADBE right now.
The first would be to play the earnings gap down candle with a tight stop and look for a bounce that partially or fully fills the gap. The second would be to wait patiently for price to tag the 200-month SMA and buy there.
Honestly, I will go with a bit of a combo approach. Take a smaller risk trade here with a tight stop, while keeping the ability to add into the position if price reaches the 200-month SMA. If I can pick up ADBE near that level, I think the probability of at least a 10% bounce is very high, and potentially a good deal more.
ADBE Monthly Chart
ADBE Daily Chart
Check out the Tuesday Top Trades Video below for an in-depth breakdown of the markets, along with detailed analysis of some of my favorite stocks and scan results. Don’t miss the actionable insights!