Wild and Wealthy Winsday
RLT Newsletter 3/18/2026
Hotter-Than-Expected PPI and Spiking Oil Prices
The Producer Price Index (PPI) released this morning came in hotter than expected, with final demand rising 0.7% MoM in February 2026, pushing the YoY rate to 3.4% (versus expectations of 2.9%). Core PPI (excluding food and energy) accelerated to 3.9% YoY, above forecasts and the highest in over a year. At the same time, oil prices are spiking hard amid the ongoing Iran conflict. We are seeing disrupted supply through the Strait of Hormuz which is driving crude higher, almost to $100 once again on Wednesday, with the possibility for another high still on the table. That is not an environment for rate cuts, and Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve made that clear in today’s presser.
Fed Holds Steady, Rate Cut Odds Evaporate
While there was no change to rate policy at today’s March 18th meeting (rates held in the 3.5–3.75% range after prior easing), the likelihood of cuts later this year continues to drop sharply. With this much uncertainty around oil prices and inflation metrics still running hot, the Fed would look foolish cutting into this environment. As of now, the market is pricing in no cuts for the near term, with probabilities heavily favoring rates remaining unchanged at the December 9th meeting according to the Fed Watch data.
December 2026 Fed Funds Rate Expectations
SPY Hits the 200-Day SMA
With Wall Street abandoning all hope for near-term rate cuts, markets sold off pretty hard on Wednesday, undercutting last Friday’s lows as I expected. As I’m writing this, SPY tagged the 200-day SMA in post-market action making this the first time it touched the key moving averages since May 23rd 2025. Since SPY broke down below the 100-day SMA at the start of this month, the 200-day SMA touch became a high probability that I have been patiently waiting for.
I am not sure if that’s the ultimate end of this A wave lower, my base case is that SPY undercuts the 200-day SMA at least slightly, with more meaningful support around $655 and $653. If we start closing below that level and fail to reclaim it quickly (for example, the very next day), then this market is in trouble and a waterfall move becomes likely.
After all, the market has been distributing for the last 189 days. If we break down below that entire range, it confirms distribution and suggests larger players have been selling into strength. In that scenario, a move toward $613 becomes likely sooner rather than later.
I’m open to a wick or quick flush below $653, but I do not want to see sustained selling below that level with expanding volume, gaps, or momentum. That would be a clear signal that the B wave bounce I’ve been yapping about for weeks is not going to materialize, and instead we’re on a more direct path lower.
SPY Daily Chart
Gold Under Pressure: C Wave Lower in Play
We’re seeing most markets drop together on this move. Gold led the weakness Wednesday morning, selling off hard right out of the gate. It’s already in a C wave lower, continuing its correction from the blow-off highs on January 29th. The most likely scenario is a move to new lows, breaking below the February 2nd candle and potentially testing the 200-day SMA. That would create a symmetrical A and C wave decline and bring gold back into the fourth wave of one degree lower that has a range of $4,380 to $3,888.
What matters most for gold is the structure of the next bounce. If the next rally is a 3-wave move, that’s a problem. It would suggest a larger B wave is forming and that a deeper correction is still ahead (Purple count).
There’s also the possibility of a running flat, where the C wave does not break below the A wave low at $4,400 and support comes in around the 100-day SMA. If price holds there and turns higher in a clean 5-wave move, that’s the most bullish outcome. Running flats often lead to strong upside because bears have failed to even make a new low before bulls regain control.
My base case is support coming in somewhere between $4,400 and $4,200, which would offer a solid risk-reward setup for a potential move back toward all-time highs, or the larger B wave in the more bearish scenario.
XAUUSD Daily Chart
Bitcoin Rejects YTD Anchored VWAP
Bitcoin rejected perfectly at the year-to-date anchored VWAP after a clean A-B-C wave off the lows. After eight consecutive bullish candles, it was an ideal level to take profits that I called out in the RLT Swing Trade chat.
From here, if we see a 3-wave pullback that finds support between $69,000 and $62,000, followed by a 5-wave push higher, that would confirm a larger B wave higher is under way and is likely to culminate around the $80,000 to $87,000 range, similar to the size of the bear market rallies we saw twice in 2022.
However, Bitcoin already rallied 27% over 43 days in what looks like a completed 3-wave corrective structure. That is sufficient for a bear market bounce. If price starts breaking down aggressively from here in a 5 wave pattern, I would expect the C wave lower to already be underway, taking BTC at least to $59,000, and more likely into the low $50,000s or even $40,000 range based on the symmetry of the move.
From a longer-term perspective, I think the risk-reward becomes very attractive once we get below the $55,000 area. That is where the Realized Price is, which has always been touched in prior bear market cycles.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
Wrapping Up: Tactical Positioning and Key Levels
All in all, this weakness and the move to new lows in SPY was expected. I did pick up some shares off the 200-day SMA in the post-market, fully expecting price to push lower over the next couple of days before finding a more durable low later this week or possibly early next week.
If we see a larger gap down over key support on heavy volume with no real response from buyers, that’s a major warning sign that something more bearish is underway.
Keep a close eye on those key technical levels. If we start breaking those, it doesn’t matter what count or pattern used to be in play, price is king and those key supports need to be respected. Macro headwinds (hot inflation, oil and geopolitics, rising dollar, Fed caution) are overriding near-term optimism right now. Watch closely, key levels matter more than narratives.